Elon Musk has secured nearly 20% voting control at Tesla by exercising his entire 2018 compensation package, a strategic move that could reshape how quickly the company pursues its artificial intelligence and robotics ambitions, including the Optimus humanoid robot. The exercise of 303,960,630 options at a strike price of $23.34 per share happened just days after SpaceX completed the largest initial public offering in history, reigniting long-standing questions about whether the two companies might merge.

Why Does Musk Need More Voting Power at Tesla?

Musk has been transparent about his reasoning. In January 2024, when his stake hovered near 13%, he posted on social media that he felt uncomfortable growing Tesla into an artificial intelligence and robotics leader without approximately 25% voting power. "Enough to be influential, but not so much that I can't be overturned," he explained at the time. The latest move brings him significantly closer to that target.

The timing matters because Tesla's business strategy has fundamentally shifted. The company no longer describes itself as merely an automaker. Instead, Tesla positions itself as a technology enterprise centered on artificial intelligence, robotics, and energy. On its first-quarter 2026 earnings call, Tesla clarified that "FSD is the core product; the car is merely the delivery vehicle," referring to its Full Self-Driving software. This positioning explains why Musk wants greater control: the company's future depends on breakthroughs in autonomous systems and the Optimus humanoid robot, not traditional vehicle sales.

Tesla

Could a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Actually Happen?

A combination of Tesla and SpaceX now appears more feasible than ever, for several reasons. SpaceX's recent IPO valued the company near $1.8 trillion and created public shares that could be used as merger currency in a stock-for-stock deal. Additionally, Musk's increased voting stake at Tesla removes one structural barrier to such a transaction.

Financial analysts have begun pricing in the possibility. One Wedbush analyst recently estimated the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up within a year at approximately 80%, though prediction-market traders remain more cautious, pricing a deal before May 2027 closer to even odds. The structural challenge, however, is that Musk controls about 85% of the vote at SpaceX through a supervoting share class, compared to his nearly 20% at Tesla. Additionally, SpaceX's market capitalization has crossed $2 trillion, while Tesla's stands at $1.5 trillion, making any merger complex in terms of valuation and control.

How Could a Merger Accelerate Optimus Development?

The connection between a potential merger and Optimus advancement lies in synergies. SpaceX has absorbed Musk's xAI start-up and is building a chip manufacturing facility alongside Tesla in Austin. A combined entity could consolidate artificial intelligence research, chip design, and robotics development under unified leadership, potentially removing bureaucratic delays that slow innovation.

Tesla's current trajectory already signals aggressive investment in robotics. The company announced plans to gradually halt production of the Model S and X, redirecting factory capacity toward mass production of humanoid robots. Tesla also planned to raise 2026 capital expenditures sharply to $25 billion, going all-in on artificial intelligence and robotics. A merger with SpaceX could amplify these efforts by providing additional capital and engineering talent.

What Are the Key Factors Shaping Tesla's AI and Robotics Strategy?

• Autonomous Driving Focus: Tesla treats Full Self-Driving software as its core product, with the vehicle serving as the initial platform for deploying autonomous capabilities before expanding to robots and other applications.
• Optimus as the Next Frontier: After establishing autonomous driving in cars, Tesla plans to migrate perception, decision-making, and control capabilities accumulated from vehicles into the humanoid robot Optimus, targeting broader commercial and consumer scenarios.
• Capital Intensity: Tesla's 2026 capital expenditure plan of $25 billion reflects the company's commitment to building the infrastructure, manufacturing capacity, and research capabilities needed for both autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots at scale.

Notably, Tesla's approach differs from some competitors. Chinese automakers like XPeng and Li Auto have also adopted "physical artificial intelligence" positioning, planning to shift from vehicle-centric development to embodied intelligence and humanoid robots. However, Tesla's emphasis on autonomous driving as the foundational technology sets it apart.

What Does This Mean for Tesla Investors?

The valuation picture remains complex. Tesla trades at approximately 370 times earnings, a multiple that reflects investor expectations for breakthroughs in autonomy and robotics that have not yet arrived at commercial scale. The company's core automotive business faces headwinds: first-quarter 2026 revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $22.4 billion, but Tesla built approximately 50,000 more vehicles than it sold. Net income of $477 million, while up 17% from the prior year, remains minuscule relative to the company's $1.5 trillion market capitalization.

A Tesla-SpaceX merger could theoretically unlock synergies in the speculative parts of Tesla's business, particularly artificial intelligence and robotics. However, investors can only speculate about the terms, timing, and long-term business outcomes of such a combination. The stock's current valuation arguably already prices in a near-miraculous improvement in profitability, leaving limited room for disappointment.

Musk's decision to exercise his options now, rather than waiting until August as his agreement allowed, signals confidence in Tesla's direction and urgency about securing voting control. The shares themselves do not vest until 2028, meaning Musk cannot sell them for years, but he holds the votes immediately. This structure, built into Tesla's board compensation agreement, gives Musk influence over company decisions without allowing him to cash out prematurely.