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Figure AI's Rival Is Going Public First: What That Means for the Humanoid Robot Race

Agility Robotics is poised to become the first humanoid robotics company to trade on public markets, offering rare transparency into a sector where competitors closely guard their finances and technology roadmaps. The Salem, Oregon-based company announced plans to go public through a merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), valuing Agility at around $2.5 billion and raising more than $620 million in gross proceeds.

The move is significant because it gives retail investors direct exposure to the humanoid robotics sector, which has so far been dominated by venture capital funding. Competitors like Figure AI, a San Jose-based startup developing general-purpose humanoid robots, have raised capital at eye-popping valuations; Figure self-reported closing a $1 billion Series C funding round at a $39 billion valuation. Yet those companies remain private, keeping their financial performance and technical progress largely hidden from public view.

Why Is Agility Choosing a SPAC Over a Traditional IPO?

Peggy Johnson, Agility's CEO and former executive vice president of business development at Microsoft, explained that the SPAC structure offers a first-mover advantage in a buzzy sector. "For investors clamoring for shares in a humanoid robotics company, Agility is an acceleration story and a timing story," Johnson said. Unlike a traditional initial public offering (IPO), a SPAC merger skips the roadshow and pricing scrutiny, allowing the company to move faster to public markets.

The capital raised will help Agility ramp up production at its 70,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Salem and fulfill an existing pipeline of customer orders. Johnson dismissed concerns about the troubled reputation of SPACs, many of which fizzled out or traded below their offering price after going public in 2021. "If we just keep our head down, keep delivering customer by customer, robot by robot, we hopefully won't experience the same volatility," she noted.

What Revenue Does Agility Already Have?

Agility is not a pre-revenue startup betting on future demand. The company has more than $300 million in booked, multi-year revenue representing roughly 1,000 robots deployed through a robots-as-a-service model, in which customers pay a monthly fee rather than purchasing machines outright. This revenue is not speculative; customers have already completed proof-of-concept deployments and have detailed deployment plans in place.

The customer roster includes major logistics and manufacturing players:

  • GXO Logistics: A global logistics provider using Agility's robots in warehouse operations.
  • Amazon: The e-commerce giant has integrated Agility's robots into its fulfillment network.
  • Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada: The automaker is deploying robots in manufacturing facilities.
  • Schaeffler: An automotive and industrial supplier using the robots in production.
  • Mercado Libre: Latin America's largest e-commerce platform has adopted Agility's robots for logistics.

This customer diversity and scale distinguish Agility from competitors that are still primarily operating in labs or conducting choreographed demonstrations.

How Does Agility's Robot Compare to Competitors?

Agility's flagship robot, Digit, is deliberately designed for a specific task rather than attempting to be a general-purpose humanoid. Standing about 5 feet 9 inches tall and weighing around 160 pounds, Digit is optimized to move heavy objects in human-built spaces like warehouses and factories. Its most distinctive feature is a set of reverse-bend knees, sometimes called "bird legs," that allow the robot to reach from floor level to overhead shelving without the knees colliding with warehouse racking.

The robot's hands are equally task-specific: two thumbs and two fingers optimized for gripping heavy plastic totes even as their contents shift during transit. This focused design philosophy contrasts with competitors pursuing more generalized humanoid forms. Johnson explained that Agility's founders "weren't interested in biomimicry for its own sake".

Johnson

Agility uses large language models (LLMs), including Claude and Gemini, to handle what Johnson calls the "semantic layer," translating high-level instructions into robot behavior. In one recent test, engineers scattered different types of trash on the floor and told Digit simply to "clean up this mess." The robot assessed, sorted, and binned everything correctly, including correctly identifying bubble wrap as non-recyclable.

What Is Agility's Core Competitive Advantage?

While LLMs trained on the entire internet are becoming commoditized, the physical layer of humanoid robotics remains proprietary and difficult to replicate. Johnson emphasized that "the physical AI of humanoids doesn't quite exist yet" at most companies. Agility believes it has built a significant moat through more than a decade of real-world deployment data.

Johnson

"We may have the largest data lake of actual operating robotics data in real-world environments," Johnson stated. This data advantage is crucial because it allows Agility to continuously improve balance, locomotion, and manipulation in ways that lab-based competitors cannot match.

Safety is another area where Agility claims a substantial edge. Unlike rival companies that showcase robots in controlled lab demos, Agility has had to meet actual industrial safety certification requirements to operate inside customer facilities. "You can't build your robot and then make it safe," Johnson explained. "That's a redesign. You have to have all of the safety certified, the electrical system, all of the parts, and the software to support all of that". This requirement has forced Agility to build safety into the robot's design from the ground up, a discipline that competitors pursuing faster timelines may lack.

When Will Humanoid Robots Enter Homes?

Despite the hype around general-purpose humanoids, Johnson is realistic about the timeline for home deployment. She estimates it will take "10-plus years" before humanoids are ready for residential use. The challenge is not technical prowess but environmental unpredictability. Warehouses and factories have fixed aisles, predictable equipment, and standardized workflows. Homes are chaotic, filled with dogs, babies, visitors, and objects left in unexpected places.

"At least roads have some discipline to them," Johnson added, comparing the challenge to autonomous vehicles. "Most of the areas that humanoids will be operating in don't". Agility is not ruling out the home market entirely but is deliberately focusing on warehouses and factories first, where the problem is well-defined and the market need is urgent.

How to Evaluate Humanoid Robotics Companies as an Investor?

Agility's path to public markets offers a template for assessing humanoid robotics companies. Key factors to consider include:

  • Booked Revenue: Look for companies with multi-year customer contracts and deployment plans already in place, not just pilot programs or letters of intent.
  • Real-World Deployment Data: Companies operating robots in actual customer facilities accumulate proprietary data that lab-based competitors cannot match, creating a defensible moat.
  • Safety Certification: Industrial safety requirements force companies to build robustness into hardware and software from the start, a discipline that shortcuts cannot replicate.
  • Market Focus: Companies targeting specific, high-value use cases like warehouse automation are more likely to achieve near-term revenue than those pursuing general-purpose humanoids.
  • Capital Efficiency: Compare valuations relative to booked revenue and customer count; Agility's $2.5 billion valuation against $300 million in booked revenue offers a different risk profile than competitors valued at $39 billion with undisclosed revenue.

The merger is expected to close later in 2026, pending shareholder approval and SEC review. Once complete, Agility will offer the first transparent window into the financial performance and technical capabilities of a pure-play humanoid robotics company, potentially reshaping how investors evaluate the sector.