The US quantum computing race is reshaping global technology alliances, but aggressive export controls are catching allied nations in the crossfire, with South Korea losing critical AI access despite having minimal business ties to China. This week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to strengthen domestic quantum supply chains, update the national quantum strategy, and expand counterintelligence protections for quantum technologies, framing competing nations as a direct threat to American quantum leadership.

Why Are Allied Nations Getting Caught in US Export Control Crossfire?

The collision between US quantum ambitions and export control enforcement is creating painful consequences for America's closest partners. On June 7, SK Telecom, South Korea's largest wireless carrier, announced a landmark partnership with Nvidia to build a gigawatt-scale AI cloud in South Korea. Five days later, the White House ordered Anthropic to suspend SK Telecom's access to Mythos 5, one of Anthropic's most advanced AI models, citing the carrier's alleged ties to China. SK Telecom denied the allegations, stating that the claims lack verified facts.

Within a single week, South Korea's largest telecom secured a major AI infrastructure deal with Nvidia and then lost access to the foundational software it needed to make that infrastructure competitive. The irony cuts deeper when examining SK Telecom's actual China footprint: the company earned roughly $1.9 million in Chinese revenue in 2024 and has just seven employees in the country, according to its annual report. Yet US officials treated the company's historical ties to China Unicom, through a joint venture stake that was sold in 2009, as grounds for suspicion.

"Washington's recent policy has been inconsistent and mercurial," noted Chatham House in its critique of US AI export controls.

Chatham House, Policy Analysis Organization

The broader pattern reveals a troubling reality: export control decisions are shaped less by coherent grand strategy than by competing corporate interests and unverified security concerns. Federal records show Anthropic has spent nearly $5 million on federal lobbying since 2023, with the Commerce Department's AI Diffusion Rule among its primary targets. The company had publicly urged stricter export controls on advanced AI chips, arguing that maintaining the United States' compute advantage is essential for national security. Yet when the government applied that same logic to Anthropic's own software exports, the company contested the decision publicly.

How Are Quantum Companies Restructuring to Survive Geopolitical Uncertainty?

Quantum firms are making dramatic strategic shifts to avoid getting caught between Washington and Beijing. The strategies vary sharply by geography: US-based companies are focusing exclusively on local customers and supply chains, while UK and European players are positioning themselves to serve allies and non-allied nations alike. Taiwanese firms, caught between two superpowers, are racing to build sovereign quantum capabilities before tightening export controls close that window.

Yuping Huang, chairman and chief executive of Quantum Computing Inc (QCI), a publicly listed US quantum photonics company, explained the company's approach to managing geopolitical risk.

"In order to mitigate the risk imposed by geopolitics, we have been working on establishing our manufacturing capabilities in the US. Right now, we are not subject to export control restrictions, but that could change. When there are restrictions, we just have to follow the rules," said Yuping Huang.

Yuping Huang, Chairman and Chief Executive, Quantum Computing Inc

QCI is expanding a thin-film lithium niobate foundry in Tempe, Arizona, to produce active and passive photonic chips as part of a deliberately domestic manufacturing footprint spanning multiple US states. Other US-based quantum firms are taking different approaches. Infleqtion, a US-based neutral atom quantum technology company, works exclusively with allied nations given their shared values on national security. The company has structured its UK and US operations independently, allowing products developed in the UK to be offered to a broader range of markets than those covered by US export controls.

Steps Companies Are Taking to Navigate Export Control Uncertainty

• Domestic Manufacturing Expansion: US-based quantum and AI firms are establishing manufacturing facilities within US borders to reduce vulnerability to future export restrictions and demonstrate commitment to domestic supply chain resilience.
• Separate International Operations: Companies like Infleqtion are structuring UK and US operations independently so products developed in different jurisdictions can serve different markets based on their respective export control regimes.
• Allied-Only Strategy: Rather than attempting to serve both Western and non-Western markets, firms are aligning exclusively with allied nations that share values on national security and infrastructure development.
• Rapid Sovereign Capability Building: Taiwanese firms are accelerating efforts to build independent quantum capabilities before export controls tighten further, recognizing the window for international partnerships is closing.

On May 21, 2026, the Trump administration announced $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act for nine quantum companies, including $1 billion for IBM to build a quantum-grade superconducting wafer foundry and $375 million for GlobalFoundries to establish a domestic quantum foundry. These investments signal the administration's commitment to building quantum capabilities domestically rather than relying on international partnerships.

What Structural Weakness Is Undermining America's Quantum Leadership?

Despite substantial federal investment, experts warn that the US faces a fundamental weakness in the quantum race that goes beyond funding. Ann Dunkin, a distinguished professor at Georgia Institute of Technology and former chief information officer at the US Department of Energy, highlighted this challenge at the Commercializing Quantum Global 2026 conference in London.

"The US is very good at innovation, but not scaling things, and so we need to get in early to scale, or China will outpace us. China is very good at scaling things, and you have seen industries where we have lost that battle," explained Ann Dunkin.

Ann Dunkin, Distinguished Professor, Georgia Institute of Technology and Former Chief Information Officer, US Department of Energy

Dunkin emphasized the geopolitical stakes of this scaling challenge. "We want to be in a position where if there are going to be a handful of global foundries, we want the West to have that handful, or at least some of that handful. From a geopolitical standpoint, we run the risk otherwise of the same problem we have right now in many technologies, where we are dependent upon China for high-tech goods," she stated.

Dunkin

To address these concerns, the US and nine allied nations established the Quantum Development Group (QDG) in July 2024 to coordinate quantum technology policies and promote resilient supply chains. The group expanded to 13 members at its fourth meeting in Tokyo in September 2025. At its fifth meeting in London in late March 2026, members committed to deeper cooperation on research security, supply chain resilience, and quantum standards development. QDG membership includes Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the US.

However, the Anthropic incident suggests that export control decisions are not always driven by coherent grand strategy. For allied governments and firms, the inconsistency is costly. Multi-billion-dollar infrastructure decisions require regulatory predictability. When export controls shift in response to corporate feuds and unverified security concerns, the planning horizon for allied partners collapses.

South Korea's position illustrates this vulnerability acutely. Beijing is preparing to spend $295 billion over the next five years on a coordinated AI data center network, with a mandate that at least 80 percent of supporting technology must come from domestic suppliers. That forced exclusion from China makes access to the US ecosystem not a preference but a necessity. Korean firms must build within the US AI supply chain or risk being squeezed out of both major markets simultaneously. Yet the Mythos incident demonstrates that access to that technology can vanish overnight, not because of anything Seoul did, but because of corporate maneuvering by Silicon Valley.

European companies see opportunity in this geopolitical divide. Richard Murray, co-founder and chief executive of ORCA Computing, a London-based photonic quantum computing company, observed that the UK's approach is more open than the US approach. "The UK's target is to attract globally leading quantum companies to build their systems in the UK, as well as supporting UK companies," he stated. ORCA's existing customers span allied nations across Europe, North America, and Asia, including the UK Ministry of Defense, Poland's Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center, and Montana State University in the US.

As the US-China quantum race intensifies, the real challenge for Washington may not be outpacing Beijing in innovation, but rather maintaining the trust and participation of allied nations whose cooperation is essential for building a resilient Western quantum ecosystem. Unpredictable export controls risk pushing those allies toward independent solutions, ultimately fragmenting the very Western alliance that export controls are meant to protect.