SpaceX's massive bet on artificial intelligence infrastructure faces unexpected headwinds after Anthropic's founder called for a slowdown in AI development, raising questions about whether the company's sky-high valuation can survive if major customers scale back their computing needs. The computing capacity deal between SpaceX and Anthropic, worth up to $45 billion through May 2029, anchors much of investor enthusiasm for the space company's future. But if Anthropic and other AI developers pump the brakes on their spending, SpaceX could see significantly lower revenue than Wall Street currently expects.

Why Is SpaceX Betting So Heavily on AI Infrastructure?

SpaceX acquired Elon Musk's xAI startup earlier in 2026, gaining control of state-of-the-art data centers like Colossus and Colossus II. The company now operates three distinct business segments: space transportation using Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets, satellite connectivity through Starlink, and AI infrastructure rental. Of these three, AI represents the most explosive growth opportunity in SpaceX's eyes.

The numbers tell the story. SpaceX values its space transportation market at $370 billion and satellite connectivity at $1.6 trillion. But the AI infrastructure market? The company believes it could reach $26.5 trillion across infrastructure, consumer subscriptions, and enterprise applications. That's why SpaceX is aggressively pursuing computing capacity deals with major AI developers.

What Are SpaceX's Current AI Computing Deals?

SpaceX has locked in multiple major contracts to lease computing capacity to AI companies:

• Anthropic Agreement: The AI safety company will spend $1.25 billion per month to rent computing capacity through May 2029, potentially totaling $45 billion over the contract period
• Alphabet Deal: Google's parent company will lease approximately $920 million in capacity from October 2026 through June 2029
• Reflection AI Contract: The startup will lease roughly $150 million worth of capacity per month through 2029

These agreements have grown so rapidly that SpaceX's chief financial officer, Bret Johnsen, believes the AI business could reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by the end of 2026. Musk has gone even further, suggesting the AI segment could propel SpaceX toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.

How Could Anthropic's Slowdown Derail SpaceX's Plans?

Last weekend, Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published a blog post calling for a slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence development, citing concerns that the technology is advancing too rapidly and could become difficult to control. He highlighted recent cybersecurity events as evidence of the risks. The timing creates a potential problem for SpaceX: most of these infrastructure agreements include 90-day exit clauses, meaning customers can terminate their contracts with relatively short notice.

"If large customers like Anthropic or Alphabet were to curb their AI spending to pace their development, SpaceX might not generate as much revenue next year as expected," analysts noted, suggesting the company's stock could face significant downside pressure.

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The risk is concrete. If Anthropic decides it doesn't need as much computing capacity due to its plan to pace AI development, the company could exit its contract with SpaceX much earlier than the May 2029 maturity date. A similar decision by Alphabet or other major customers could compound the problem.

What Does This Mean for SpaceX's Valuation?

SpaceX's current valuation rests heavily on these AI revenue projections. The company generated $7.8 billion in total revenue during the second quarter of 2026, with the AI business contributing $962 million. While connectivity still accounts for most revenue at $4.291 billion, the AI segment is growing rapidly and driving investor enthusiasm.

However, SpaceX's stock is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 87.3, making it 14 times more expensive than the Nasdaq-100 index, which trades at a 6.1 price-to-sales ratio. Wall Street expects SpaceX to grow total revenue to $106.5 billion in 2027, which would place the stock at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 18.8. Even with that aggressive growth projection, the company appears expensive compared to other major technology firms.

The vulnerability is clear: if major customers reduce their computing spending, SpaceX's actual 2027 revenue could fall significantly short of the $106.5 billion forecast, making the company's current valuation look even more stretched. SpaceX stock is already down 34 percent from its all-time high, but analysts suggest there could be room for further declines if the AI revenue thesis weakens.

How to Monitor SpaceX's AI Business Health

Investors and industry observers can track several key indicators to assess whether SpaceX's AI infrastructure strategy remains on track:

• Customer Contract Updates: Watch for announcements about new computing capacity deals or modifications to existing agreements, particularly any early terminations or reductions in spending commitments
• Quarterly Revenue Breakdowns: Monitor SpaceX's reported AI segment revenue in earnings reports to see if growth is matching Wall Street's $100 billion annual run rate projection by year-end 2026
• Data Center Utilization Rates: Track any public statements about how fully booked SpaceX's Colossus and Colossus II facilities are, as declining utilization could signal weakening demand
• Industry AI Development Pace: Follow announcements from major AI companies about their spending plans and development timelines, as these directly impact their need for computing capacity

What About SpaceX's Core Space Business?

While the AI infrastructure story dominates recent headlines, SpaceX's traditional space transportation business continues to deliver results. The company achieved a major milestone this week when it launched its 700th Falcon rocket, with 687 of those being Falcon 9 rockets and 13 being Falcon Heavy rockets. The latest launch carried three satellites for SES, SpaceX's oldest commercial customer, using a booster that had already completed 29 previous flights.

SpaceX is also preparing for a significant test of its Starship vehicle. The company announced plans to launch its 14th Starship mission as early as September 22, pending regulatory approval, with a target liftoff time of 7:15 a.m. local time in Texas. If successful, this would mark the first time SpaceX attempts to launch Starship into orbit, carrying 26 larger V3 Starlink satellites to an altitude of 275 kilometers. The upper stage is expected to complete six orbits around Earth before completing its mission after about 10 hours.

The Starship orbital test represents a long-promised capability for the company. The super heavy lift rocket has conducted test flights since April 2023, making progress in fits and starts. Reaching orbit would mark a significant milestone in the development campaign and could open new revenue opportunities for SpaceX beyond its current business segments.

The tension between SpaceX's traditional space business and its newer AI infrastructure play will likely define investor sentiment in the coming months. While the space transportation and Starlink segments provide steady, proven revenue, the AI business offers the explosive growth story that justifies the company's premium valuation. If that AI growth story falters due to customer spending slowdowns, SpaceX's stock could face meaningful pressure despite the strength of its core space operations.