A 45-foot upper stage from SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is projected to slam into the moon on August 5 at approximately 2:34 a.m. ET, traveling at 5,400 miles per hour near the Einstein crater. The 8,800-pound section was launched from Kennedy Space Center in Florida in January 2025 as part of a mission to deliver Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost lunar lander, which successfully reached the moon's surface in March 2025. Unlike the reusable first stage that returned to Earth, this upper stage became trapped in a highly elliptical orbit and never reentered the atmosphere.

What Is Crashing Into the Moon?

The object headed for lunar impact is not an entire Falcon 9 rocket, but specifically the second stage, or upper stage, of the two-stage launch vehicle. The Falcon 9 stands 230 feet tall and is classified as a medium-lift launch vehicle capable of carrying approximately 50,000 pounds of cargo to orbit. SpaceX has launched the Falcon 9 hundreds of times from Florida's Space Coast and Vandenberg Space Force Base in California to deliver Starlink broadband satellites and other payloads to low-Earth orbit. The rocket is also the only American-made vehicle that carries astronauts aboard SpaceX's Dragon crew capsule to the International Space Station.

The first stage, which uses nine Merlin-class engines to provide initial thrust at liftoff, separated early in the flight and returned to Earth for a controlled landing to be recovered and reused. However, this particular upper stage was positioned so far from Earth that it became stuck in orbital limbo, unable to fall back through the atmosphere and burn up as most upper stages do.

How Did Astronomers Predict This Collision?

The prediction comes from Bill Gray, an independent astronomer who developed Project Pluto, widely used software for tracking near-Earth objects like asteroids, comets, and human-made spacecraft. Gray's analysis was based on ground observations from telescopes and orbital surveys of the object, designated 2025-010D. According to Gray's calculations, the upper stage will strike the moon while traveling at approximately 2.43 kilometers per second, or 5,400 miles per hour.

Because the rocket is mostly hollow, the impact won't create a crater as large as an asteroid would. However, a study co-authored by Gray that has yet to be peer-reviewed suggests the collision could still create a crater between 66 and 98 feet wide. The impact will kick up enough dust that powerful instruments on Earth may be able to observe the resulting plume from more than a quarter-million miles away.

What Are the Key Details About the Impact?

• Impact Time: Wednesday, August 5 at approximately 2:34 a.m. Eastern Time, near a lunar feature known as the Einstein crater
• Impact Speed: The upper stage will be traveling at 2.43 kilometers per second, equivalent to 5,400 miles per hour, more than seven times the speed of sound
• Object Weight: The upper stage weighs approximately 8,800 pounds and measures 45 feet in length
• Crater Size: Scientists predict the impact will create a crater between 66 and 98 feet wide on the lunar surface
• Safety Status: The collision poses no danger to Earth and will not significantly alter or damage the moon's surface

Will Observers Be Able to See the Impact?

Skywatchers using backyard telescopes will likely have difficulty observing the Falcon 9's upper stage crash into the moon. The impact will be incredibly faint for ground-based observations, making it nearly impossible to detect with standard equipment. However, professional astronomers with much more powerful instruments will have a better chance of observing the event and analyzing the resulting crater and dust plume.

"Surprises are possible; it will probably be at least worth taking a look. Maybe we'll see the flash. Maybe we'll see rocks ejected from the crater. Maybe we'll even see both," said Bill Gray.

Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer

The impending impact offers scientists a valuable opportunity to study the crater formation and analyze the plume of dust that could stretch several miles above the lunar surface. This kind of observation helps researchers better understand lunar geology and impact dynamics.

Is This the First Time a Spacecraft Has Crashed Into the Moon?

This will not be the first time a spacecraft has collided with the moon at high speed. In October 2009, NASA intentionally crashed two spacecraft into the moon as part of the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite mission. The twin impacts, which included the Centaur stage, exposed a plume of material that may not have seen direct sunlight for billions of years. The purpose of that mission was to determine whether water-ice was present in permanently shadowed craters at the moon's south pole.

"It does highlight a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of," noted Bill Gray.

Bill Gray, Independent Astronomer

While the upcoming Falcon 9 impact is unintentional, it raises questions about space debris management and the long-term consequences of leaving rocket stages in orbit. The incident underscores the growing challenge of tracking and managing human-made objects in space as launch activity continues to increase globally.

What Does This Mean for SpaceX's Future Moon Missions?

The irony of this situation is not lost on observers. SpaceX is actively developing its much larger Starship rocket specifically for stable, planned moon landings as part of NASA's Artemis program. The Falcon 9 that launched the Blue Ghost lander was itself used in a lunar mission, yet its upper stage has spent more than 18 months in an uncontrolled orbit before its inevitable collision with the moon. As SpaceX continues to refine its launch and landing procedures, the company is working to ensure that future missions, particularly those involving Starship, achieve controlled landings and recoveries rather than unintended impacts.