SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company arrives amid significant investor skepticism, with the company's stock down 25% from its $150 IPO price in mid-June to $114 today. Wall Street analysts agree on one thing: the entire bullish case for SpaceX depends on whether Starship can become a fully operational, rapidly reusable vehicle that dramatically cuts launch costs. If it fails, the company's ambitious plans for orbital artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, lunar bases, and Mars colonization collapse.

What Questions Are Investors Asking About SpaceX's Future?

As SpaceX prepares to report earnings, analysts and investors are focused on several critical unknowns that will shape the company's trajectory. The timing is particularly sensitive because Thursday marks the expiration of a lockup period, when early investors can begin selling their shares, potentially flooding the market.

The questions investors want answered include:

• AI Spending Plans: How much will SpaceX invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure, and what returns does management expect? This matters because companies are under intense pressure to justify AI budgets to shareholders, with some firms getting criticized for spending too much and others praised for restraint.
• Compute Capacity Strategy: SpaceX has built massive data centers in the Memphis area, including supercomputers called Colossus 1 and Colossus 2. Will the company rent out excess computing power for quick revenue, or reserve it for internal projects? The company has earned as much as $1.25 billion per month renting compute, but analysts worry this could distract from long-term goals.
• Starlink's Financial Health: Can SpaceX's satellite internet service continue growing and remain profitable? Starlink is currently the company's primary revenue engine, and any slowdown in subscriber growth or margin compression could force management to accelerate timelines for riskier ventures.
• Tesla Integration Plans: Will Musk hint at combining SpaceX and Tesla, his other public company? Speculation about a merger has circulated, but Musk offered no clarity during Tesla's recent earnings call.

Why Does Starship Matter More Than Anything Else?

Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, the lead underwriters of SpaceX's IPO, have released research reports that frame Starship as the linchpin of the entire investment thesis. Without a fully reusable Starship, none of SpaceX's grander ambitions become economically viable.

"Everything Depends on Starship. We view Starship's path to rapid and complete reusability as the critical enabler underpinning SpaceX's many long-term growth drivers," stated JPMorgan analysts.

JPMorgan Analysts

The reason is straightforward: launch costs. Today, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has achieved an 85% cost reduction compared to the broader aerospace industry. But Goldman Sachs models that by 2030, Starship will reach a cost of just $183 per kilogram to orbit, representing a 99.1% discount compared to legacy launch vehicles. That's the kind of cost reduction that makes space-based infrastructure economically sensible.

To reach that cadence, Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX will need to manufacture approximately 600 Starships through 2029 to support roughly 2,750 launches by 2030. That's an enormous production challenge that will test the company's manufacturing capabilities.

How Could Lower Launch Costs Transform the Space Economy?

If Starship delivers on its promise, the implications extend far beyond SpaceX's bottom line. A 2022 Citigroup report forecasted that dramatic reductions in launch costs could unlock a much broader space economy, including space-based solar power, commercial space stations, city-to-city hypersonic travel, lunar and asteroid mining, space tourism, and microgravity research and development. Citigroup estimated those new applications could generate roughly $100 billion in annual sales by 2040.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan add an even more ambitious possibility: orbital AI data centers. If Starship can reliably deploy 47 AI satellites per launch, Goldman models that SpaceX could have roughly 175,000 AI satellites in orbit by the end of 2030, providing 26 gigawatts of computing power. That's nearly three times the terrestrial compute capacity Goldman expects SpaceX to have built on Earth by then.

The cost advantage of building compute in orbit is estimated at $15 to $20 billion per gigawatt, compared to $28 to $32 billion on Earth. However, that advantage depends partly on the success of Terafab, a giant chipmaking project SpaceX plans with Tesla to reduce reliance on Nvidia and other third-party chip suppliers.

How Can SpaceX Fund Its Ambitious Long-Term Goals?

One of the most encouraging findings in the analyst reports is that Goldman Sachs expects Starlink to generate enough cash flow in the coming years to become the financial engine for deeper space exploration and the AI business. In other words, SpaceX's profitable satellite internet service could fund the company's riskier, longer-term bets.

Goldman Sachs identifies several upside opportunities that could drive stock appreciation if execution succeeds:

• Point-to-Point Travel: Using Starship for rapid, suborbital flights to transport passengers between distant cities on Earth.
• Space Tourism: Commercial flights carrying paying customers to orbit and beyond.
• In-Orbit Manufacturing: Using the microgravity environment to produce materials and pharmaceuticals impossible to make on Earth.
• Asteroid Mining: Extracting valuable minerals and metals from asteroids in space.
• Lunar and Martian Infrastructure: Building bases on the Moon and establishing settlements on Mars.

JPMorgan frames SpaceX's ambitions as potentially the largest economic frontier ever attempted by a single company. The bank noted that SpaceX is "many years ahead" in space launch capabilities and has already demonstrated an incredible track record of innovation across space, connectivity, and AI.

What Are the Biggest Risks Investors Should Monitor?

Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan acknowledge that execution risk is substantial. Starship's scale and complexity are unprecedented, and any delays, technical setbacks, or regulatory hurdles could impede the planned growth across multiple business lines. The company has an impressive track record of innovation, but Starship represents a step change in ambition.

Additionally, the stock's 25% decline since the IPO suggests that investors are already pricing in some skepticism about near-term profitability. With the lockup period expiring Thursday, there's potential for additional selling pressure as early investors take profits. The earnings call will be the first real opportunity for analysts to press SpaceX executives on whether the company can deliver on its promises, and whether the financial model supporting these grand ambitions is realistic.