Global technology sovereignty will advance only marginally over the next four years, with China and the United States maintaining dominant positions while most other nations struggle to close critical capability gaps. According to Forrester's new "Global Sovereignty Forecast, 2025 to 2030" report, the average tech sovereignty score across 14 major economies will rise just one percentage point, from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030, despite significant government investment in sovereign AI, chip manufacturing, and cloud infrastructure.

The research measures countries' ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently of foreign government influence. The findings paint a sobering picture for nations attempting to reduce their dependence on foreign technology providers, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global tech landscape.

Which Countries Are Winning the Sovereign AI Race?

China and the United States have built commanding leads that will be difficult for other nations to overcome. China recorded the highest overall tech sovereignty score at 82%, while the U.S. followed closely at 79%. These two countries dominate across multiple dimensions of technology capability, from semiconductor production to AI model development to data center autonomy.

The gap between these leaders and the rest of the world is stark. Among the 14 countries assessed in the Forrester study, which included Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, and the UK, most are projected to see only modest improvements over the next five years. This concentration of power creates what analysts describe as an uneven competitive advantage for the leading nations.

"Today, tech sovereignty is concentrated in the hands of a few global leaders, creating an uneven competitive advantage for some countries. To compete in the AI era, nations must understand their strategic dependencies and build durable partnerships that safeguard their data, infrastructure and long-term autonomy," said Dario Maisto, a principal analyst at Forrester.

Dario Maisto, Principal Analyst at Forrester

Why Is Europe Falling Behind in Sovereign AI Development?

Europe's largest economies face particularly steep challenges in achieving technology independence. Germany and Spain will see their sovereignty scores rise by only two percentage points, from 34% in 2025 to 36% in 2030. France will improve from 33% to 35%, the UK from 30% to 32%, and Italy from 27% to 29%. These minimal gains reflect deep structural dependencies on foreign technology providers across multiple critical areas.

The Forrester report explicitly noted that Europe's lower scores reflect significant dependencies on chips, cloud services, software, and data center capacity. Despite substantial government initiatives and investment programs aimed at reducing reliance on non-European technology, the continent's fragmented approach and smaller individual economies make it difficult to compete with the scale and resources of the U.S. and China.

How to Build Sovereign AI Capability: Key Strategic Priorities

Nations serious about closing capability gaps and reducing technology dependencies will need to pursue coordinated strategies across multiple dimensions. The Forrester analysis identified nine critical areas where countries must invest and develop local capacity:

• Government AI Investment: Direct public funding for AI research, development, and deployment initiatives that build national AI capabilities independent of foreign providers.
• Cloud Sovereignty: Development of domestic cloud infrastructure and services to reduce reliance on foreign cloud providers for critical data and applications.
• Technology Workforce Availability: Building a skilled workforce capable of developing, deploying, and maintaining advanced technologies without dependence on foreign talent.
• AI Model Development: Creating homegrown large language models and other AI systems rather than relying exclusively on foreign models.
• Data Center Capacity: Building sufficient computing infrastructure relative to technology spending to support sovereign AI operations at scale.
• Semiconductor Production: Developing domestic chip manufacturing capabilities to reduce vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and foreign export controls.
• Software Creation: Creating domestic software ecosystems and reducing dependence on foreign software providers.
• Rare Earths Processing: Securing supply chains for critical minerals and materials needed for advanced technology manufacturing.
• Data Center Autonomy: Ensuring that critical computing infrastructure operates under domestic control and governance.

The report suggests that nations unable to develop these capabilities independently will need to commit to strategic partnerships and alliances with other countries pursuing similar goals. This collaborative approach could help smaller economies pool resources and expertise to compete more effectively against the dominant powers.

Where Are Semiconductors Making Progress?

Semiconductor manufacturing is the one area where meaningful progress is expected across multiple countries. The U.S. and South Korea are projected to see dramatic improvements, with chip production scores rising from 45% in 2025 to 79% in 2030. Japan is expected to jump from 36% to 53%, China from 40% to 51%, and India from 0% to 13%.

Despite these improvements, the Forrester report cautioned that semiconductors and software will remain among the most significant sovereignty challenges due to concentrated chip supply chains and a handful of dominant software providers. Even as countries invest heavily in chip manufacturing, the global semiconductor industry remains vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

The uneven distribution of technology power is particularly evident in North America. While the U.S. is forecast to remain a global leader, Canada is expected to improve modestly, going from 33% to 34%. Mexico will continue to remain the lowest among the 14 countries assessed at 20%, highlighting the region's stark disparities in technology capability and investment.

What Does Sovereign AI Mean for National Governments?

Australia's recent announcement of a new Office of AI and national standards for artificial intelligence reflects the growing recognition among governments that AI is not simply a technology issue but a core element of economic policy, national security, and social resilience. Technology leaders across the country backed the federal government's decision, signaling a shift away from treating AI as a niche technical concern.

"AI is not simply a technology issue. It is an economic, social and national security priority. Australia's response must support innovation while earning public trust through clear standards, accountable deployment and long-term thinking," said Dean Langenbach, Chief Executive Officer at Kinetic IT.

Dean Langenbach, Chief Executive Officer at Kinetic IT

Industry experts emphasized that success in the sovereign AI era will depend on operational discipline rather than headline adoption rates. Building the foundations for trusted AI deployment, including AI-fluent workforces, secure systems, trusted data governance, and clear accountability structures, requires sustained investment and coordination between government and industry.

The broader context for sovereign AI development includes emerging proposals for how governments might fund and benefit from AI development. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has proposed that the U.S. Government become a stockholder in major AI companies, potentially acquiring a 5% stake in firms like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. This concept, loosely modeled on Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend, would allow the public to share in the economic upside of AI-driven growth. Senator Bernie Sanders has proposed a more aggressive version, calling for a one-time 50% tax on AI company stock, with collected shares deposited into a public wealth fund called the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund.

These proposals reflect growing concerns about AI-induced job displacement and the need to ensure that the economic benefits of AI development are broadly shared rather than concentrated among a small number of companies and investors. As nations pursue sovereign AI strategies, questions about who benefits from AI development and how to manage the economic transition will become increasingly important.