The NRC's Quiet Bet on Small Reactors: Why 2030 Matters for AI's Energy Future
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is betting that small modular reactors (SMRs) could be generating power by 2030, but the real bottlenecks won't come from the agency's licensing process. Instead, financing, supply chain constraints, fuel availability, and workforce shortages represent the biggest obstacles to deploying these compact nuclear systems that tech companies are eyeing to power energy-hungry artificial intelligence data centers.
What Did the NRC Chairman Say About Small Reactors?
NRC Chairman Ho Nieh addressed the timeline for SMR deployment at Politico's Energy Summit on June 12, 2026, reiterating comments he made earlier in the week. While Nieh acknowledged that deployment and power generation are possible in the near future, he emphasized that success depends on factors largely outside the NRC's control.
"We're not going to have unnecessary regulatory risk. Regulatory uncertainty is risk to capital, and capital will go elsewhere if risks are too high. We're taking those risks off the table through the reforms that are happening at the NRC," said Nieh.
Ho Nieh, Chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
This message signals a deliberate shift in how the NRC approaches advanced reactor licensing. Rather than being a barrier to deployment, the agency is positioning itself as a facilitator, removing regulatory uncertainty that might scare away investors and companies looking to build these smaller, factory-constructed reactors.
How Is the NRC Modernizing Its Licensing Process?
The NRC is undertaking significant reforms to its licensing framework, driven by the ADVANCE Act and Executive Order 14300. These changes include new rulemaking efforts like Part 53 and Part 57, which create streamlined pathways for advanced reactor and microreactor applications, respectively.
- Risk-Informed Approach: The new rules adopt a more flexible, risk-informed methodology that maintains safety standards while accommodating diverse reactor designs, from SMRs to non-light water reactors and factory-built systems.
- Removing Legacy Conservatism: The NRC is eliminating unnecessary regulatory conservatisms that were built into frameworks developed roughly 70 years ago, when the industry had less operating experience and less sophisticated analytical tools.
- Expanding Applicant Pool: The modernized process now accommodates not just traditional utility companies with decades of experience, but also startups and new entrants pursuing their first reactor projects.
These reforms reflect a fundamental recognition that the nuclear industry has evolved. The days of large light water reactors dominating the landscape are giving way to a more diverse ecosystem of reactor types and ownership models, particularly as tech companies and data center operators seek reliable, carbon-free power sources for AI infrastructure.
What's Threatening the NRC's Ability to Support This Transition?
Despite the agency's streamlined approach, the NRC itself faces a significant challenge: workforce attrition. Since the start of 2025, the agency has lost more than 500 employees, according to Commissioner Bradley Crowell. The fiscal year 2027 budget request is roughly 8 percent less than the previous year's enacted budget, with staffing projected to decrease by 7 percent to 2,606 full-time employee equivalents.
Ironically, one of the biggest recruitment and retention obstacles comes from the very companies the NRC is trying to help license. Tech firms and reactor startups are actively hiring former NRC staff members and offering salaries significantly higher than federal government compensation. This creates a brain drain that could slow the agency's ability to process applications at the pace the industry needs.
"All these companies want to design and get reactors licensed, and they need the talent to do that. They're hiring people from the NRC and they're paying them far more than the federal government pays," said Nieh.
Ho Nieh, Chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
To address this challenge, the NRC is exploring compensation strategies and launching new recruitment efforts, including an internship program designed to build a pipeline of future nuclear professionals. However, these internal measures may not be sufficient to offset the competitive pressure from private industry.
How Does This Affect AI Data Centers?
The timeline and regulatory clarity matter enormously for AI companies. Data centers training large language models and running inference workloads consume enormous amounts of electricity. Traditional power sources are struggling to keep pace with demand, making nuclear power an increasingly attractive option. SMRs are particularly appealing because they can be deployed at smaller scales, closer to where computing clusters are located, rather than requiring massive centralized facilities.
If the NRC can maintain its current licensing trajectory and the industry can overcome supply chain and financing hurdles, SMRs could begin contributing to the power grid by 2030. That timeline aligns with projections for the next wave of AI infrastructure buildout, making nuclear a potentially critical piece of the puzzle for companies seeking to power AI responsibly without relying solely on renewable sources that depend on weather and geography.
Nieh emphasized that the NRC's independence remains intact despite scrutiny from the Trump administration. He noted that the commission has achieved unanimous agreement on approximately 94 percent of votes since he became chairman in January 2026, demonstrating internal cohesion despite the turbulence the agency experienced in 2025.
"Independence does not mean isolation. This includes working with agencies like the DOE as both sides look to deploy more nuclear reactors. Two agencies, each working in their own separate lanes but headed to the same destination, where America is leading the world again in nuclear energy," said Nieh.
Ho Nieh, Chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
The message is clear: the regulatory pathway for SMRs is being cleared. The real race now is whether the private sector can move fast enough to capitalize on it.