Wall Street banks are overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX, with most analysts recommending the stock and projecting significant gains over the next 12 to 18 months. Yet despite these glowing forecasts, SpaceX shares have remained stubbornly earthbound, trading around $152 per share just above their June 12 IPO opening price, even after briefly topping $200 in the company's first week of trading.

Why Are Analysts So Excited About SpaceX?

The enthusiasm from major investment banks centers on SpaceX's dominance in space transportation and its emerging role in artificial intelligence infrastructure. J.P. Morgan, which underwrote the IPO, released research notes highlighting the company's competitive advantages and long-term potential. The bank expects the stock to reach $225 by the end of 2027.

SpaceX's track record speaks for itself. The company has completed approximately 670 orbital launches with a nearly 99% success rate using its Falcon rockets. Most payloads launched into orbit since 2023 have gone through SpaceX, cementing its position as the market leader. The company's reusable rocket technology allows it to transport people and cargo into Earth's orbit at costs far below traditional aerospace competitors.

Investment bank Raymond James has taken the most optimistic stance, projecting the stock could eventually reach $800 per share. The firm frames SpaceX as a foundational industrial company for the 21st century, comparable to how railroads, electric grids, and the internet reshaped prior economic eras.

What's Driving the AI Infrastructure Bet?

Beyond traditional rocket launches, SpaceX is aggressively positioning itself as an artificial intelligence infrastructure provider. The company has signed agreements to lease compute capacity to Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI, with these contracts potentially worth up to $82 billion over the coming years. These arrangements give frontier AI developers access to high-performance Nvidia GPU clusters housed in SpaceX's data centers.

SpaceX also recently agreed to acquire Cursor, a coding business, for $60 billion in an all-stock transaction. This move signals the company's intention to integrate software development capabilities with its existing AI infrastructure. Analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush sees these moves as creating measurable synergies that accelerate progress across SpaceX's entire portfolio.

"SpaceX's ambitions, and potential impact on humanity, are bigger than any company's we've ever seen," said analysts from J.P. Morgan.

J.P. Morgan Research Team

How Could AI Investments Strengthen SpaceX's Core Business?

• Flight Control Systems: Advanced coding tools from Cursor could streamline software for flight control systems, trajectory optimization, and real-time decision-making during launches.
• Revenue Diversification: Compute partnerships generate consistent cash flow that supports continued investment in capital-intensive segments like reusable rocketry and Starship development.
• Satellite Enhancement: Starlink's satellite constellations can benefit from AI-driven network management and predictive analytics that enhance coverage and data throughput for customers.

Ives assigned SpaceX an "outperform" rating with a 12-month price target of $190, implying roughly 18% upside from recent trading levels. His analysis frames SpaceX as more than a rocket operator, emphasizing its status as a vertically integrated technology business with recurring revenue streams.

Why Are Investors Staying Cautious Despite Wall Street's Optimism?

The disconnect between analyst enthusiasm and actual stock performance reflects genuine uncertainties about SpaceX's ability to execute on its most ambitious goals. While the company dominates the reusable rocket market with Falcon 9, its gigantic Starship rocket remains in the test phase. No technology currently exists to place data centers in space or send humans to Mars, despite these being central to SpaceX's long-term vision.

Wall Street analysts themselves acknowledge that delays or failures in establishing a steady launch schedule for Starship could torpedo their forecasts. Equity research firm MoffettNathanson has taken a more cautious stance, assigning SpaceX a "neutral" rating and projecting the stock will eventually settle at $131 per share. The firm cited concerns over regulatory unknowns, unproven technology, and uncertain demand.

"It is, in short, a bet on any and all things made possible by a virtual lock on rocket manufacturing and launch," noted MoffettNathanson in its research report.

MoffettNathanson Equity Research

SpaceX founder Elon Musk took the company public because it needs capital to fund its ambitions, including placing more satellites and eventually data centers into space. The company ended its first day on Wall Street with a market value exceeding $2 trillion, though it has since settled around that level. For now, investors appear to be taking a measured approach, waiting to see whether SpaceX can demonstrate consistent profitability and operational scale across its diverse business segments before committing to the most bullish valuations.