SpaceX and Tesla shares have begun trading almost identically, posting nearly synchronized daily moves over the past week despite predictions that investors would rotate out of Tesla and into the newly public space company. Both stocks rose on Tuesday, with SpaceX gaining 4.1% and Tesla adding 2.1%, marking the fifth consecutive session in which the two Elon Musk-led companies moved in the same direction. Over the prior four trading days, SpaceX gained 5.2% while Tesla rallied 7.9%, with both recording two up days and two down days.

The synchronized advance has surprised market observers who expected Tesla shareholders to sell their positions to fund purchases of SpaceX stock following its record-breaking initial public offering in June. Instead, both companies are being driven by shared macro and thematic currents, reflecting their increasingly similar identity as AI-centric technology platforms.

What's Driving the Twin Trading Pattern?

The correlation between SpaceX and Tesla reflects several overlapping factors that have convinced investors to treat them as a packaged bet on artificial intelligence, space exploration, and Elon Musk himself. SpaceX is pushing to deploy AI data centers in orbit, while Tesla is betting on AI for autonomous driving and humanoid robots. Both companies also share a CEO with a massive, loyal retail investor base, which amplifies their tendency to move in sympathy.

SpaceX received an additional boost when the stock was formally added to the Russell 1000 index following the market close on Friday, June 28. The stock surged 7.2% to $164.19 on Monday, marking its biggest single-day jump since June 15, just two sessions after its IPO. The advance stood out against a 1.2% rise in the S&P 500 and a 0.6% gain for the Dow.

Wall Street is beginning to weigh in with optimistic assessments. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $190 price target, citing competitive advantages across three core businesses:

• Starlink Communications: SpaceX's satellite internet service, which continues to expand global coverage and revenue streams.
• Starship Launch Capability: The company's next-generation rocket has the potential to slash space transport costs by roughly 90% compared to the Falcon 9, unlocking more commercial space applications.
• Colossus AI Data Centers: A growing pipeline of partnerships to place artificial intelligence computing infrastructure in orbit.

"We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets in the tech landscape," stated Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush.

Dan Ives, Analyst at Wedbush

CEO Elon Musk added fuel to the bullish case over the weekend, commenting on projections that SpaceX could reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028. He said he would be "disappointed" if the company failed to substantially exceed that figure. Analyst consensus already places 2028 revenue near $103 billion. Musk also predicted that SpaceX's Grok 4.5 artificial intelligence model would outperform rival systems from Anthropic, with Grok originating at xAI, which merged with SpaceX in February and has since been fully integrated.

What Could Break the Trading Tandem?

Despite the current synchronized movement, several near-term catalysts could cause the two stocks to decouple. Tesla is scheduled to report quarterly vehicle deliveries on Thursday, giving investors a fresh read on the health of its electric-vehicle business. SpaceX, meanwhile, will see more shares released from lockup and the first wave of Wall Street research notes.

The next major catalyst for SpaceX arrives July 7, when the company joins the Nasdaq-100 index. That inclusion is expected to trigger buying from major passive funds such as the Invesco QQQ ETF. All three major indexes calculate weightings based on available float rather than total outstanding shares, meaning actual market impact will depend on how much stock is freely tradable.

However, a wave of new shares is about to hit the market. Restrictions on insider and early-stage investor holdings begin expiring in August, with the first unlock event expected to double the publicly available supply. Additional shares will be freed up throughout the year, culminating in the 180-day lockup expiration for employees and most pre-IPO investors on December 8. Musk's own shares remain locked until June 2027.

How to Evaluate SpaceX's Long-Term Investment Potential

For investors considering SpaceX shares, several key factors warrant careful analysis before making a decision:

• Liquidity Constraints: Only about 86 million SpaceX shares are in the public float against a total share count exceeding 13 billion, limiting how easily large positions can be bought or sold. S&P Global has held off on adding SpaceX to its benchmark indexes, citing liquidity constraints that make it difficult for S&P 500 index funds to absorb the name.
• Dilution Risks: SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock deal to acquire AI developer Anysphere requires issuing about 400 million new shares. An existing wireless spectrum agreement calls for $11.1 billion in new shares in 2027. Executive bonuses, stock options, and other awards could add up to $150 billion in new shares under certain conditions.
• Historical IPO Performance: A Truist analysis of the 30 largest recent IPOs found average returns of roughly negative 9% at both six and twelve months. Facebook, Rivian, and Robinhood each suffered substantial first-year declines. Saudi Aramco, one of the largest IPOs ever, dropped 23.3% within three months.

SpaceX itself carried a valuation near $500 billion just twelve months ago, including xAI. At current levels, its market capitalization approaches $2 trillion, pricing in extraordinary growth expectations just as the August unlock approaches. Twelve analysts now cover SpaceX, with seven assigning Buy ratings. The average target price stands around $240.

Despite the rally, SpaceX remains well below its post-IPO peak of $225.64, reached shortly after shares began trading on June 12. The stock's lowest close since going public was $147.11, dipping below its IPO price of $150 on June 23, its sixth full day of trading.

For now, the market is treating the two Musk enterprises as a packaged bet on AI, space, and the world's most closely watched entrepreneur. But as Tesla reports earnings and SpaceX faces its first major share unlock, the synchronized trading pattern that has defined the past week may soon become history.