SpaceX and Tesla shares have moved almost identically over the past week, with both companies rising together despite fears that Tesla investors would dump shares to buy the newly public space company. The synchronized trading pattern reflects how Wall Street now views both enterprises: as artificial intelligence-focused technology platforms under Elon Musk's leadership, rather than as competitors fighting for the same investor dollars.

On Tuesday, SpaceX climbed 4.1% to close at $170.86, while Tesla added 2.1% to finish at $420.60. Over the prior four trading days, SpaceX gained 5.2% while Tesla rallied 7.9%, with both stocks recording two up days and two down days. This marks the fifth consecutive session in which the two Musk-led companies moved in the same direction.

What's Driving the Twin Trading Pattern?

The tight correlation between SpaceX and Tesla defies early market expectations. When SpaceX went public in mid-June with a record-breaking $75 billion initial public offering, analysts predicted that Tesla shareholders would rotate their holdings into the newly public space company, crushing Tesla's stock price in the process. That rotation never materialized.

Instead, both companies are being driven by the same macro and thematic currents. SpaceX is pushing to deploy artificial intelligence data centers in orbit, while Tesla is betting on AI for autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The two also share a CEO with a massive, loyal retail investor base, amplifying their tendency to trade in sympathy with each other.

SpaceX received an additional boost after the stock was formally added to the Russell 1000 index, surging 7.2% to $164.19 on Monday. The company will enter the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, which is expected to trigger buying from major passive funds such as the Invesco QQQ ETF.

How Are Wall Street Analysts Viewing SpaceX's Growth Potential?

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $190 price target, citing the company's competitive advantages across three core businesses: Starlink satellite communications, Starship-driven launch demand, and a growing pipeline of Colossus AI data center partnerships. Twelve analysts now cover SpaceX, with seven assigning Buy ratings and an average target price around $240.

"We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets in the tech landscape," Ives wrote, citing competitive advantages across three core businesses: Starlink satellite communications, Starship-driven launch demand, and a growing pipeline of Colossus AI data center partnerships.

Dan Ives, Analyst at Wedbush

Musk himself has fueled the bullish case. Over the weekend, he commented on projections that SpaceX could reach $100 billion in annual revenue by 2028, saying he would be "disappointed" if the company failed to substantially exceed that figure. Analyst consensus already places 2028 revenue near $103 billion.

Musk also predicted that SpaceX's Grok 4.5 artificial intelligence model would outperform rival systems from Anthropic. Grok originated at xAI, which merged with SpaceX in February and has since been fully integrated.

What Risks Could Derail the Twin Trading Pattern?

Despite the bullish momentum, significant headwinds loom ahead. A wave of new shares is about to hit the market as restrictions on insider and early-stage investor holdings begin expiring in August. The first unlock event is expected to double the publicly available supply, with additional shares freed up throughout the year, culminating in the 180-day lockup expiration for employees and most pre-IPO investors on December 8. Musk's own shares remain locked until June 2027.

Dilution from acquisitions poses another concern. SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock deal to acquire AI developer Anysphere requires issuing about 400 million new shares. An existing wireless spectrum agreement calls for $11.1 billion in new shares in 2027. Executive bonuses, stock options, and other awards could add up to $150 billion in new shares under certain conditions.

The two stocks could soon decouple. Tesla is scheduled to report quarterly vehicle deliveries, giving investors a fresh read on the health of its electric-vehicle business. SpaceX, meanwhile, will see more shares released from lockup and the first wave of Wall Street research notes.

Steps to Understanding the IPO Valuation Debate

• Current Market Value: SpaceX trades at a market capitalization approaching $2 trillion, making it the sixth largest public U.S. company, larger than Tesla itself.
• Analyst Skepticism: Morningstar analysts, which don't earn investment banking fees, wrote that the IPO is "significantly overvalued," estimating the company is only worth $780 billion, less than half its IPO value.
• Technology Challenges: SpaceX has conceded in regulatory documents that some of its business plans rest on "unproven technologies," including shielding orbiting datacenters from radiation damage and catching up to leaders in AI such as Anthropic and OpenAI.
• Profitability Questions: The company's artificial intelligence business called xAI has no clear path to profitability and is burning cash to catch up with rivals.

Historical precedent offers cautionary tales. A Truist analysis of the 30 largest recent IPOs found average returns of roughly negative 9% at both six and twelve months. Facebook, Rivian, and Robinhood each suffered substantial first-year declines. Saudi Aramco, one of the largest IPOs ever, dropped 23.3% within three months.

SpaceX itself carried a valuation near $500 billion just twelve months ago, including xAI. At current levels, its market capitalization approaches $2 trillion, pricing in extraordinary growth expectations just as the August unlock approaches.

For now, the market is treating the two Musk enterprises as a packaged bet on AI, space, and the world's most closely watched entrepreneur. But the synchronized trading pattern may not last. As Tesla reports earnings and SpaceX faces share dilution, investors will need to reassess whether both companies deserve to move in lockstep or whether their fundamentals will finally diverge.