Joby Aviation is positioning itself to generate substantially higher long-term profits than competitor Archer Aviation, even though Archer is expected to reach profitability faster. The two leading electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) companies are pursuing fundamentally different business strategies, and new financial projections suggest Joby's approach could deliver greater rewards for investors willing to accept higher near-term risk.

What's the Difference Between These Two eVTOL Business Models?

Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation represent two contrasting visions for the flying taxi industry. Archer functions primarily as an original equipment manufacturer (OEM), building aircraft and selling them to operators. Joby, by contrast, is building a vertically integrated transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) company, similar to how Uber operates on the ground, but in the air.

Each approach carries distinct advantages and risks. Archer's OEM model leverages established aerospace technology partners for components, which theoretically simplifies the certification pathway and enables earlier revenue generation through equipment sales. However, this reliance on external suppliers means less control over the supply chain and potential vulnerabilities if partners face delays or quality issues.

Joby's strategy involves building, owning, and operating its own eVTOL fleet with significant manufacturing support from Toyota Motor, one of its major investors. This go-it-alone approach offers greater control over technology development but requires longer timelines to generate revenue and demands substantial capital investment to build out the full transportation service.

How Do the Financial Projections Compare Over Time?

Wall Street analyst consensus figures reveal a striking divergence in the two companies' financial trajectories. In 2030, Archer is projected to significantly outperform Joby across nearly every metric. However, by 2034, the picture reverses entirely.

• 2030 Revenue: Archer is forecast to generate $2.51 billion compared to Joby's $111 million, giving Archer a substantial near-term advantage
• 2034 Revenue: Joby is projected to reach $11.0 billion while Archer reaches only $4.89 billion, representing a 125% difference in Joby's favor
• 2034 Earnings Before Interest and Taxes: Joby is expected to generate $2.48 billion in EBIT versus Archer's $2.11 billion, demonstrating superior profitability margins
• 2034 Free Cash Flow: Joby is projected to produce $1.28 billion in free cash flow compared to Archer's $988 million, providing more capital for reinvestment or shareholder returns

These projections highlight a fundamental difference in how the two business models scale. Archer's OEM approach generates revenue quickly but faces inherent margin constraints, while Joby's TaaS model requires patience but offers exponentially higher earnings potential once the service reaches scale.

Why Is Joby's Risk Profile Lower Than Previously Thought?

Investors have traditionally viewed Joby's integrated approach as riskier than Archer's established supply chain model. However, recent developments suggest this conventional wisdom may be outdated. Joby is actually slightly ahead of Archer in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification race, contradicting the assumption that Archer's OEM model provides an easier regulatory pathway.

Additionally, Archer faces a significant threat to its revenue projections. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has raised public safety concerns about flying eVTOLs into commercial airports, calling into question whether the airline will honor its $1 billion order agreement with Archer. For context, this $1 billion commitment represents a substantial portion of Archer's projected medium-term revenue, making any cancellation a material risk to the company's financial forecasts.

In contrast, Delta Air Lines continues to invest in Joby Aviation, signaling management confidence in the company's technology and business model. While Delta's investment carries no binding commitment, it suggests institutional belief in Joby's potential to integrate air taxi services into premium travel offerings.

Steps to Evaluate eVTOL Companies as an Investor

• Compare Business Models: Distinguish between OEM manufacturers and integrated service operators, understanding that each has different revenue timelines and margin profiles
• Analyze Long-Term Projections: Look beyond near-term profitability to understand how each company's model scales over five to ten years
• Assess Regulatory Progress: Track FAA certification milestones and compare actual progress against industry assumptions about which business model has regulatory advantages
• Monitor Customer Commitments: Evaluate the stability of major customer orders and whether airline partners are expressing confidence or raising safety concerns
• Review Capital Requirements: Understand how much capital each company needs to invest relative to revenue, as this affects cash flow and financial sustainability

The eVTOL industry remains highly speculative, and neither company has yet demonstrated sustained profitability or commercial operations at scale. However, when comparing the two highest-profile players using risk-reward analysis, Joby Aviation presents a compelling case for investors with longer time horizons and higher risk tolerance. The company offers significantly greater long-term revenue and earnings potential, while the perceived risk advantage of Archer's model has diminished due to certification progress and customer commitment uncertainties.