Joby Aviation is positioning itself to generate significantly higher long-term profits than competitor Archer Aviation, even though Archer is expected to reach profitability faster. The two companies represent fundamentally different approaches to the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market, and new financial projections reveal that Joby's vertically integrated model could deliver substantially greater returns by the mid-2030s, despite carrying more near-term risk.

What's the Difference Between Joby and Archer's Business Models?

Joby and Archer are pursuing opposite strategies in the emerging air taxi industry. Archer Aviation operates as an original equipment manufacturer (OEM), designing and building eVTOL aircraft but relying on established aerospace partners for components and manufacturing support. Joby Aviation, by contrast, is building a vertically integrated transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) company, similar to Uber but in the sky. Joby manufactures its own aircraft, operates its own fleet, and will directly provide air taxi services to customers.

Each approach carries distinct advantages and risks. Archer's OEM model benefits from leveraging existing aerospace expertise and should theoretically reach revenue faster through equipment sales. However, this dependence on external suppliers reduces Joby's control over its supply chain and product development. Joby's TaaS model requires the company to build and maintain its own infrastructure, which demands larger upfront capital investments but offers greater control and potentially higher profit margins once operations scale.

How Do the Financial Projections Compare?

Wall Street analysts from S&P Global Market Intelligence project dramatically different financial trajectories for the two companies. In 2030, Archer is expected to significantly outpace Joby across nearly every metric. Archer's projected 2030 revenue is $2.51 billion compared to Joby's $111 million. Archer's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) is forecast at $270 million, while Joby is projected to lose $111 million. Archer's free cash flow is expected to reach $380 million, versus Joby's negative $112 million.

However, the picture reverses dramatically by 2034. Joby's revenue is projected to reach $11.0 billion, compared to Archer's $4.89 billion. Joby's EBIT is forecast at $2.48 billion versus Archer's $2.11 billion. Most strikingly, Joby's free cash flow is projected at $1.28 billion, nearly 30% higher than Archer's $988 million.

• 2030 Revenue: Archer leads with $2.51 billion projected revenue versus Joby's $111 million, reflecting Archer's faster path to equipment sales
• 2034 Revenue: Joby surpasses Archer with $11.0 billion projected revenue compared to Archer's $4.89 billion, as Joby's TaaS operations scale
• 2034 Free Cash Flow: Joby projects $1.28 billion in free cash flow versus Archer's $988 million, indicating stronger profitability potential
• Capital Intensity: Archer's capital spending is projected at 661% of revenue in 2030, while Joby's is 117.7%, showing Joby's model becomes more efficient as it scales

Why Is Joby's Riskier Model Attracting Investor Confidence?

The conventional wisdom suggests that Archer's OEM model carries less risk because it relies on proven aerospace manufacturing partnerships and should generate revenue sooner. However, recent developments have challenged this assumption. Joby is actually slightly ahead of Archer in the race for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification, contradicting the notion that Archer's approach is inherently less risky from a regulatory perspective.

Additionally, Archer faces a significant threat to its near-term revenue projections. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby recently expressed safety concerns about eVTOL aircraft operating into traditional airports, raising questions about whether United will honor its $1 billion order agreement with Archer. This single contract represents a substantial portion of Archer's projected medium-term revenue, making the company vulnerable to customer hesitation.

In contrast, Delta Air Lines continues to invest in Joby Aviation, signaling management confidence in Joby's technology and business model. While Delta's investment does not guarantee future orders, it demonstrates that a major airline believes in Joby's potential to integrate air taxi services into its premium customer offerings.

Steps to Understanding the eVTOL Investment Landscape

• Compare Business Models: Evaluate whether a company is pursuing equipment manufacturing (OEM) or operating its own service (TaaS), as these models have fundamentally different revenue timelines and profit potential
• Assess Regulatory Progress: Track FAA certification milestones and safety approvals, as these directly impact a company's ability to launch commercial operations and generate revenue
• Monitor Customer Commitments: Review signed orders and partnerships with airlines or transportation companies, but also track any public concerns from major customers that could jeopardize those agreements
• Analyze Long-Term Projections: Look beyond near-term profitability to understand how a company's business model scales, particularly the relationship between capital spending and revenue growth over five to ten years

The eVTOL sector remains highly speculative, and neither Joby nor Archer has yet proven that its model will succeed at commercial scale. However, the financial projections and recent industry developments suggest that Joby's vertically integrated approach, while riskier in the near term, could deliver substantially greater rewards for investors willing to wait for the company's TaaS operations to mature. Archer's faster path to profitability is offset by questions about customer demand and the sustainability of its equipment-focused revenue model in a market that may ultimately be dominated by service operators rather than manufacturers.