Artificial intelligence is expected to dominate talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, but analysts say deep mistrust and intensifying technological competition make major breakthroughs unlikely. The summit reflects how AI has evolved from a commercial technology issue into one of the defining strategic competitions of the twenty-first century, directly affecting military capabilities, cybersecurity, economic dominance, and global political influence.

What's Really Driving the US-China AI Divide?

The US-China competition over artificial intelligence has intensified rapidly, with some experts comparing it to a modern technological arms race. Tensions increased further after Anthropic launched its advanced Mythos AI model, which reportedly identified thousands of major cybersecurity vulnerabilities across software systems and financial networks. China was excluded from early access to the model, fueling concerns in Beijing that Western AI technologies could create a widening security and capability gap between the two countries.

The inclusion of Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia, in Trump's delegation has raised expectations that semiconductor exports and advanced AI chips will be discussed directly during the summit. Nvidia's powerful H200 chips remain highly sought after by Chinese technology firms, even as the United States maintains restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China. White House technology advisor Michael Kratsios is also part of the delegation, underscoring the strategic importance of AI issues in bilateral discussions.

However, expectations for concrete agreements remain low. U.S. officials acknowledged that cutting-edge AI systems like Mythos made a "channel of communication" with China essential to avoid conflicts arising from their deployment. Yet the core obstacle remains trust. The United States sees unrestricted Chinese access to advanced AI technology as a security threat, while China views American export controls and restrictions as an effort to suppress its technological rise.

Why Are Both Sides Struggling to Find Common Ground?

China has proposed creating a formal AI dialogue mechanism involving US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. Analysts say such mechanisms could help both sides manage risks involving cyberattacks, disinformation, financial instability, and potential misuse of powerful AI systems. Experts have also suggested establishing emergency hotlines or agreements to report suspected AI-related incidents before they escalate into broader crises.

Despite discussions about AI governance, technological restrictions remain a major source of friction between the two countries. US lawmakers are considering additional measures, including the MATCH Act, which would further limit China's access to advanced semiconductor supply chains and AI-related technologies. China argues that these restrictions amount to an attempt to contain its technological development and weaken its long-term competitiveness.

Meanwhile, Chinese AI companies continue to face shortages of advanced computing power as export controls limit access to cutting-edge chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Market intelligence firm IDC China warns that shutting Chinese companies out of Mythos risks deepening a "generational gap" in AI defense capabilities between China and the West. Computing power shortages have forced many Chinese AI models to ration user access in recent months.

How Could Both Sides Reduce AI-Related Risks?

• Emergency Communication Channels: Both sides could establish a no-blame hotline to flag suspected AI-driven incidents, similar to existing military hotlines, though US officials have complained that China has often not picked up in the past.
• Guardrails for Frontier AI Models: Establishing clear boundaries on how advanced AI systems can be deployed, particularly those with potential military or financial applications, could reduce unintended escalation.
• Cybersecurity Agreements: Committing to reduce AI-enabled malicious activity, similar to the 2015 US-China Cybersecurity Agreement, could address intellectual property theft concerns and cyberattack risks.
• Shared Risk Assessment: Creating joint mechanisms to evaluate emerging AI threats, such as autonomous systems, bioweapon design acceleration, and AI-driven disinformation campaigns, could build mutual understanding.

Researchers warn the stakes are rising: advanced AI could accelerate bioweapons design, trigger financial shocks, supercharge cyber and disinformation campaigns, and even slip beyond human control to "rogue" systems acting on their own. Washington has struck guardrails on advanced tech with Beijing before, on nuclear proliferation, and in 2024 both sides agreed that humans, not AI, must control nuclear-use decisions.

The United States has repeatedly accused China of large-scale intellectual property theft involving American AI research and technology firms. At the same time, Chinese officials accuse Washington of using AI governance and security concerns as justification for broader technological containment. In a pointed article last week, the Communist Party's flagship journal warned that Western AI measures have moved beyond targeted restrictions to what it called a "systematic ecosystem blockade" against China.

"When one side sees AI as a proliferation risk to be contained and the other sees containment as an attack on a general-purpose technology, that makes it really difficult to find common ground," said Kwan Yee Ng, head of international AI governance at Beijing-based AI safety consultancy Concordia AI.

Kwan Yee Ng, Head of International AI Governance at Concordia AI

The summit may produce symbolic commitments to dialogue or risk management, but deeper disagreements over technology access, semiconductor controls, and strategic rivalry are likely to continue shaping US-China relations for years to come. "Getting senior Western figures to engage directly with China on AI has become increasingly difficult, though a positive signal from the Xi-Trump summit could change that," Ng noted. For now, both sides recognize the dangers of uncontrolled AI competition, yet each fears that cooperation could weaken its strategic position.