OpenAI is facing an internal leadership divide over its path to the public markets, with Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar expressing serious concerns about CEO Sam Altman's aggressive timeline for an initial public offering (IPO). Friar has told colleagues that the company may not be ready to go public before 2026, citing the substantial procedural, compliance, and organizational work still required, as well as financial risks tied to OpenAI's heavy spending plans .

Why Is the CFO Worried About OpenAI's IPO Timeline?

Friar's caution centers on several interconnected financial challenges. The company is projected to burn through more than $200 billion before reaching positive cash flow, and it has committed more than $600 billion over the next five years toward cloud server capacity . These are staggering figures that raise legitimate questions about whether OpenAI can sustainably manage such obligations while simultaneously preparing for public markets scrutiny.

Beyond the raw numbers, Friar has flagged a structural risk in how OpenAI is funding its expansion. A significant portion of the recently announced $122 billion in funding is expected to come from Amazon and NVIDIA, both of which are also key suppliers of cloud and chip infrastructure to OpenAI . This overlap creates what she views as a potentially risky capital structure, where the company's largest investors are also its largest vendors. Additionally, Friar has questioned whether OpenAI truly needs to invest so much in AI servers and whether its slowing revenue growth would be sufficient to support such commitments .

How Are Tensions Between Altman and Friar Affecting Company Operations?

The disagreement between the two executives has begun to manifest in organizational changes that suggest deeper friction. Friar has been left out of key financial discussions, including a recent high-level meeting with a major investor on server procurement, a notable shift from her previous involvement in similar conversations . Even more telling, her reporting line has changed; she now reports to Fidji Simo, who leads OpenAI's applications business, rather than directly to Altman, a structure that diverges from typical corporate governance where CFOs report to the CEO .

Despite these differences, both executives have publicly maintained that they are aligned on the company's broader compute strategy . However, the internal dynamics suggest that Altman's vision for rapid growth and public markets entry is clashing with Friar's more cautious financial stewardship.

What Are the Key Financial Pressures Driving This Disagreement?

• Massive Cash Burn: OpenAI is projected to burn through more than $200 billion before achieving positive cash flow, creating a runway that depends entirely on continued investor confidence and capital raises .
• Infrastructure Commitments: The company has committed $600 billion over five years toward cloud server capacity, a figure that locks OpenAI into long-term spending obligations regardless of revenue performance .
• Revenue Growth Concerns: While OpenAI generates approximately $2 billion in revenue per month, Friar has questioned whether this growth rate is sufficient to justify the scale of infrastructure investment .
• Supplier Overlap Risk: Amazon and NVIDIA, which are providing much of the $122 billion in new funding, are also OpenAI's primary vendors for cloud services and chips, creating a circular financial arrangement that could complicate IPO valuations and investor confidence .

OpenAI's gross profit margins last year were lower than expected, largely because the company had to purchase expensive computing resources on short notice to meet higher-than-expected demand . This pattern suggests that OpenAI's infrastructure spending may be reactive rather than strategically planned, adding another layer of financial uncertainty.

What Does Sam Altman Want, and Why the Rush?

Altman has expressed interest in pursuing an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, according to reporting by The Information . His urgency appears driven by several factors. An IPO could value OpenAI at up to $1 trillion, and Altman reportedly wants the company to go public before rival Anthropic, which is expected to pursue an IPO in the near term and could raise over $60 billion . Going public would also allow OpenAI to fund acquisitions using stock, supporting Altman's plan to invest heavily in AI infrastructure.

"I think it's fair to say it is the most likely path for us, given the capital needs that we'll have," Altman noted during a livestream.

Sam Altman, CEO at OpenAI

The competitive pressure is real. In the over-the-counter (OTC) market, where private company shares trade through special arrangements, OpenAI is currently valued at about $765 billion, roughly 10 percent lower than the $852 billion valuation recognized during its latest funding round . In contrast, Anthropic has been valued at $600 billion, a figure over 50 percent higher than the $380 billion valuation it received in February . Demand for OpenAI shares in the OTC market is declining, with large hedge funds and venture capital firms unable to find buyers for $600 million worth of OpenAI shares, while buyers looking to invest in Anthropic have pooled as much as $2 billion in cash .

Steps to Understanding OpenAI's IPO Strategy and Financial Position

• Track the Funding Sources: Monitor which investors are providing capital and whether they have existing business relationships with OpenAI as vendors or partners, as this can signal potential conflicts of interest or circular financial arrangements.
• Watch Revenue Growth Rates: Compare OpenAI's quarterly revenue growth against its infrastructure spending commitments to assess whether the company's income can realistically support its ambitions.
• Monitor Leadership Changes: Pay attention to shifts in reporting lines, executive departures, or changes in who participates in key financial meetings, as these often signal internal disagreements about strategy.
• Assess Competitive Positioning: Compare OpenAI's valuation and investor sentiment in the OTC market against competitors like Anthropic to understand whether the company is losing ground in the race to go public.

The restructuring that OpenAI underwent to reduce its reliance on Microsoft and make capital raising easier has set the stage for an IPO, but Friar's concerns suggest that the financial foundation may not be as solid as Altman's timeline implies. The company was founded as a non-profit in 2015 but later created a for-profit arm, with the non-profit, now called the OpenAI Foundation, holding a 26 percent stake and able to acquire more shares if certain milestones are met . This structure ensures the non-profit remains closely tied to the company's financial success, adding another layer of complexity to any public offering.

The tension between Altman and Friar reflects a fundamental question facing OpenAI as it scales: can the company sustain its aggressive growth trajectory while preparing for the scrutiny and accountability that comes with being a public company? Friar's caution suggests that the answer may not be as straightforward as Altman's optimism implies. Major banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley are expected to play key roles in both OpenAI's and Anthropic's IPOs, and they will likely scrutinize the company's financial projections and infrastructure commitments closely . The outcome of this internal debate could shape not only OpenAI's path to the public markets but also the broader trajectory of the artificial intelligence industry.