SpaceX faces its biggest challenge yet this week, and it has nothing to do with rockets or space. The company will report second quarter earnings after market close on Tuesday, August 4, marking the first time it has opened its financial books to the public since its record initial public offering in June. This debut earnings call carries far more weight than a typical first quarter report for a newly public company, because two trading days later, on August 6, the first major lockup period expires, freeing roughly 911.5 million insider and employee shares worth well over $100 billion at current prices.

Management will host a live audio-only webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET, streamed on X, with no dial-in option. The timing is critical. SpaceX's stock has struggled since its June debut, dropping 43 percent from its peak close on June 16 and trading well below its $135 initial public offering price for most of July. With that backdrop, investors are preparing a detailed list of questions about the company's three business segments and its path to profitability.

What Questions Will Wall Street Ask SpaceX?

Wall Street analysts are focused on specific metrics that will reveal how each of SpaceX's business divisions is performing. According to Motley Fool estimates, analysts expect revenue near $6.9 billion for the quarter, up sharply from the $4.69 billion SpaceX reported in the first quarter, with a narrower per-share loss than the $1.27 posted three months earlier. But the headline numbers only tell part of the story.

• Starlink Subscriber Growth: Investors want to know how many net new Starlink subscribers SpaceX added after ending March with 10.3 million customers, and whether average revenue per user is holding up as the service expands into lower-income markets.
• AI Segment Revenue: The company signed major contracts this year with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI that could annualize to nearly $28 billion if fully ramped, and investors want clarity on how much of the AI segment's reported revenue reflects these deals.
• Capital Expenditure Trends: Capital spending nearly doubled in the AI segment alone between 2024 and 2025, and analysts are watching closely to see whether those expenditures are still accelerating or starting to plateau.
• Forward Guidance: SpaceX has never offered forward guidance as a private company, and investors will be listening to see whether management breaks that tradition on Tuesday.

The earnings call also arrives just days after Elon Musk publicly denied a Wall Street Journal report describing internal planning to separate Tesla's China business ahead of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. Whether Musk or SpaceX executives address that speculation on the call, even indirectly, may be something investors will be listening for closely.

How to Prepare for SpaceX's Earnings Announcement

• Monitor the Lockup Expiration: Mark August 6 on your calendar as the date when 911.5 million insider and employee shares become tradable, potentially creating significant selling pressure if major shareholders decide to exit positions.
• Track Starlink Metrics: Pay attention to subscriber numbers and average revenue per user figures, as these will indicate whether the satellite internet business can sustain growth while expanding into price-sensitive markets.
• Evaluate AI Segment Performance: Listen for specific details about revenue from Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI contracts, as these partnerships represent a major new revenue stream for the company.
• Watch for Guidance Signals: Even if SpaceX doesn't offer formal forward guidance, pay attention to management commentary about capital spending plans and growth expectations, as these hints can move the stock significantly.

Why SpaceX's Stock Performance Matters Beyond Wall Street

The broader context for this earnings call is sobering. Tesla and SpaceX shares both declined sharply in late July, with SpaceX dropping 7.2 percent over five days to close at $115.07 on Friday, July 24, its lowest price since the company's record initial public offering last month. Tesla's stock plunged 18 percent during that same week to close at $313.03, marking its worst weekly slump since 2022. Combined, the declines in both stocks wiped away roughly $130 billion of Elon Musk's wealth, weeks after he had become the world's first trillionaire.

SpaceX's stock decline came as the company prepared for the 13th test flight of Starship, the largest rocket ever built or flown. The company planned to fly the new version of the rocket, Starship V3, from its launch facility in Starbase, Texas, after scrubbing a test flight the previous week when the rocket's booster triggered a hold that shut down the engines right as they were starting to ignite. When Flight 13 finally flew on July 24, it carried the first batch of functional Starlink V3 satellites Starship had ever deployed, twenty of them, with six equipped with cameras meant to scan the ship's heat shield during reentry.

Flight 13 checked most of its boxes. Starship deployed all 20 satellites, relit a Raptor engine in space, and splashed down softly in the Indian Ocean off Western Australia. SpaceX released new footage on Friday evening showing Starship from an angle captured by its own Starlink satellites, watching the rocket drift away in orbit. The 65-second clip stitched together footage from four cameras mounted on a single Starlink V3 satellite, opening with a close view of Starship's 171-foot upper stage still catching sunlight, then pulling back as the two spacecraft separated.

Musk's longer-term plan calls for a Starlink V3 constellation of 100,000 satellites, according to a recent filing with the Federal Communications Commission, with Starship as the only vehicle capable of launching them at the volume that requires. Each Starship flight is designed to carry up to 60 V3 satellites once the vehicle reaches routine service, well beyond what Falcon 9 can carry in a single mission. Starship is next expected to fly with an attempt at catching the ship itself with the launch tower's mechanical arms, a maneuver SpaceX has so far reserved for the Super Heavy booster.

Tuesday's earnings call will be the first chance for SpaceX's financial numbers to make the case to skeptics. As Musk made clear in a post on X after his own warning to short sellers, the CEO expects skeptics to be proven wrong over time. The numbers themselves will need to back up that confidence.