A major new analysis shows that artificial intelligence and military spending, not renewable energy, are driving the global rush to mine copper, lithium, and cobalt. More than 70 percent of current demand for critical minerals comes from conventional industries, power grid expansion unrelated to renewables, consumer goods, and increasingly from the artificial intelligence and defense sectors, according to a report released by the Oakland Institute, a progressive think tank.

This finding challenges a central justification the mining industry has used to expand extraction worldwide: that dramatically increasing mineral mining is necessary to meet global climate goals. The disconnect between what mining companies claim and where minerals actually go raises urgent questions about whether the world can pursue both an AI boom and meaningful climate action simultaneously.

Where Are All These Critical Minerals Actually Going?

The Oakland Institute researchers analyzed critical mineral data from the International Energy Agency alongside government and industry records to distinguish demand driven by renewable energy from everything else. The six key energy transition minerals they tracked include cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements.

Their findings revealed a stark imbalance in how these minerals are allocated:

• Renewable Energy: Wind, solar, and grid-scale batteries account for roughly one-fifth of projected demand for critical minerals.
• AI Infrastructure: Data centers require vast quantities of copper, along with minerals such as gallium, germanium, and tantalum used in high-performance computer chips.
• Military Applications: Defense spending demands lithium, cobalt, copper, titanium, and nickel for aircraft, communication systems, guidance systems, and ammunition. An F-35 fighter jet alone contains over 400 kilograms of rare earth minerals, while an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer requires over 2.2 tons.
• Consumer Goods and Traditional Industries: Construction, manufacturing, and consumer electronics remain the largest sources of copper demand overall.

The scale of mineral extraction is staggering. Global material extraction, including minerals, wood, and other materials pulled from the Earth, has tripled since the 1970s. Copper illustrates the magnitude: more of the metal will have been mined during the first 26 years of the 21st century than in all of prior human history combined.

How Fast Is AI and Military Demand Growing?

The report identified defense spending and artificial intelligence infrastructure expansion as two of the fastest-growing sources of mineral demand. Military demand for ten key critical minerals is projected to grow 135 percent faster over the next decade than in the previous one, according to data from the Colorado School of Mines cited in the report.

A separate January report by S&P Global reached similar conclusions about copper specifically, projecting that demand from military applications and artificial intelligence will be among its fastest-growing uses. Demand from each source is expected to roughly triple by 2040, equating to about 4 million metric tons of additional copper demand. That's equivalent to about one-sixth of the world's current annual copper production.

These projections come as governments around the world ramp up both military and artificial intelligence investments. President Trump proposed a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, nearly double the 2023 level, including funding that would allow the Pentagon to invest directly in domestic mining projects.

What Are the Environmental and Social Costs?

The mining boom comes with devastating consequences for communities and ecosystems. There have been more than 36,000 mining-related conflicts across 4,293 locations globally between 2015 and 2022, according to analysis from the Institute of Development Studies cited in the report. Such conflicts often erupt over the environmental toll of mining, from its immense water consumption to catastrophic waste pit collapses.

Watchdog groups consistently rank the mining industry as the sector most often linked to attacks on environmental defenders. Frédéric Mousseau, policy director at the Oakland Institute and report co-author, emphasized the urgency of reframing the conversation around mineral extraction.

"Rather than saying new mining for renewables will come on top of existing demand, we should demilitarize the global economy and stop this rush for all kinds of industries, and focus whatever mining is already there on renewables," said Mousseau.

Frédéric Mousseau, Policy Director at the Oakland Institute

The authors warned that unchecked mining expansion poses catastrophic risks. "If the mining rush goes on unchecked, the devastation caused by mineral extraction will multiply at a scale never seen before, destroying livelihoods, displacing millions of people, and causing irreversible environmental destruction," they wrote in the report.

What Policy Changes Could Reduce Mineral Demand?

The Oakland Institute researchers identified several strategic policy choices that could help reduce mineral demand without sacrificing climate or development goals:

• Transportation Priorities: Governments can prioritize public transportation over electric vehicles, which the authors argue are not necessary for the energy transition if mass transit is adequately funded and developed.
• Circular Economy Initiatives: Increasing recycling of key materials can dramatically reduce the need for new mining while recovering valuable minerals from existing products and waste streams.
• Military Budget Reductions: Slashing military spending globally would reduce demand for minerals used in defense applications, freeing up supplies for renewable energy and other essential uses.
• Economic Diversification: Diversifying the economies of commodity-dependent countries can reduce their reliance on mining revenues and create more stable, sustainable development pathways.

The mining industry has pushed back against these findings. The London-based International Council on Mining and Metals, which represents one-third of the industry through its 26 member companies, stated that "it's clear the world needs more mining and it needs better mining, whatever the end use." The group noted that its members "have committed to independently assessed requirements on human rights, Indigenous Peoples' rights, water stewardship, tailings safety and nature".

However, the Oakland Institute's analysis suggests that without deliberate policy intervention to redirect mineral supplies toward renewable energy and away from military and non-essential consumer applications, the world faces an impossible choice: either abandon climate goals or accept unprecedented environmental and social destruction from mining expansion.

Why This Matters for Climate Action

The report's findings expose a fundamental tension in how the world is pursuing both technological advancement and climate action. While AI and military technologies are driving mineral demand at accelerating rates, renewable energy development is competing for the same limited mineral supplies. Without policy changes that prioritize renewable energy mining over other uses, climate goals may become increasingly difficult to achieve, even as governments invest heavily in clean energy infrastructure.