Americans are increasingly convinced that driverless cars are coming, but they're far less enthusiastic about actually owning one themselves. A new Gallup poll released this week reveals a striking disconnect: about two-thirds of Americans expect to see autonomous vehicles become commonplace within the next decade, including 31% expecting them to become routine within five years. Yet only 19% of people surveyed said they would personally own or lease an autonomous vehicle, a figure unchanged since Gallup's previous survey in 2018.

This gap between expectation and adoption is shaping how companies like Waymo are approaching the market. While the robotaxi industry races to expand, the real near-term growth story isn't about getting self-driving cars into American garages. It's about fleet-based services that let people try the technology with lower stakes, like a ride to the airport.

Why Do Americans Trust the Technology but Not Enough to Buy It?

The reasons behind this hesitation are complex. A majority of Americans, 58%, said that it's safest to have at least mostly human-operated cars on the roadways, up from 47% in 2018. Women are even more likely to see human-driven cars as safer. This preference for human control persists despite mounting evidence that autonomous systems are statistically safer. According to Waymo, its autonomous vehicles have registered 82% fewer injury-causing crashes and 92% fewer pedestrian crashes with injuries compared to an average human driver over the same distance.

Jameson Wetmore, an associate professor in the School for the Future of Innovation in Society at Arizona State University, explained the psychology behind this gap. "The goal is not to replace 100% of American cars next year with these things. It's to slowly ease them in and develop a transition," Wetmore said. "And it's a pretty good place to be for the transition". He noted that most Americans have never even seen a car without a human at the wheel going down the street, which makes the technology feel unfamiliar and risky, even when data suggests otherwise.

Wetmore lives in Phoenix, Arizona, one of the most advanced testing grounds for Waymo robotaxis in the country. "In Phoenix right now, I'd say they are commonly used," he explained. "I see a dozen driverless cars every day. Now, it's not 50% of the cars out there, but it might be 5% of the cars that I see are driverless". Familiarity breeds comfort; as more people encounter autonomous vehicles in their daily lives, attitudes are shifting.

How Is Waymo Expanding Into New Markets Like Portland?

Waymo is pursuing aggressive geographic expansion while working through regulatory frameworks in new cities. This week, the company announced plans to bring its autonomous vehicle service to Portland, Oregon, marking the latest addition to its growing footprint. The company has begun early preparations by manually driving its vehicles through city streets to map the terrain and learn local traffic patterns.

Starting this week, Waymo will operate vehicles with human drivers to help its autonomous system learn Portland's roads, bridges, and high-traffic corridors. The company said it will follow its established safety framework as it prepares for eventual public service. Mapping Portland city streets could take "several months" according to city officials, with Waymo typically deploying a fleet of about 10 to 12 vehicles for this work.

Portland Mayor Keith Wilson welcomed the move, citing the city's transportation safety goals. "We need every tool to help us meet our Vision Zero goals, and autonomous technology plays an increasingly important role in providing a safe, thriving, affordable multimodal transportation system," Wilson stated. Waymo said its technology has contributed to a significant reduction in serious injury crashes in other cities where it operates, reporting a 13-fold decrease compared with human drivers.

What Regulatory Hurdles Remain Before Robotaxis Can Operate?

While Waymo can begin mapping Portland's streets without special permits, the company will need to clear significant regulatory hurdles before deploying driverless vehicles. Waymo will need to apply for and obtain a permit from Portland's Bureau of Transportation before it can begin testing autonomous vehicles in the city. Portland is currently updating its administrative rules governing autonomous vehicle permits, with public comment on draft rules having closed on April 10.

Beyond local permitting, broader legal questions remain unresolved. Wetmore emphasized that courts need to settle who's responsible and who pays when there is a crash with a self-driving car. "Legal clarity will be needed before individual ownership can really take off," he noted. Additionally, growth is being stymied by the lack of an overarching federal organizer for the transition. The federal government has largely stepped back, and development is happening piecemeal by private companies at the moment.

Wetmore

Steps to Prepare for the Autonomous Vehicle Transition

• Regulatory Framework Development: Cities and states need to update administrative rules and permitting processes to govern autonomous vehicle testing and deployment, as Portland is currently doing with its updated TRN-14.34 rules.
• Public Familiarization: Communities should encourage residents to experience autonomous vehicles through ride-hailing services rather than personal ownership, building comfort and trust through low-stakes interactions.
• Legal Clarity on Liability: Courts and legislatures must establish clear rules about responsibility and insurance coverage in crashes involving autonomous vehicles, which is essential before widespread adoption can occur.
• Coordination with Law Enforcement: Cities should reach out to law enforcement partners in other cities that already have self-driving vehicles to learn best practices for managing autonomous vehicles on public roads.

What Does the Timeline for Widespread Adoption Actually Look Like?

Experts believe the transition will happen gradually, not overnight. Wetmore suggested that most American cities could resemble Phoenix within a decade, with autonomous vehicles making up a small but noticeable percentage of traffic. A majority of cars could be capable of driving themselves in a few decades, he added.

The idea of self-driving cars has always felt "20 years away," Wetmore observed. "So, I think we're finally at a place where we're not 20 years away. I think we're closer," he said. However, he cautioned that no vehicle, whether driven by a computer or a human, is foolproof. "I think anybody who says that a driverless car will not crash is absolutely lying to you or totally misguided," Wetmore stated. "It is very clear that whoever is behind the wheel, whether computer or humans, there will be crashes, unless we take drastic steps to change the speeds and the ways in which we organize driving".

One of the big debates in autonomous vehicle development is whether they should have a steering wheel or not. Wetmore suspects that self-driving cars will keep their steering wheels for a while. "It's the day the steering wheel disappears, that will be a major culture shift," he remarked. This symbolic detail underscores how much of the transition is about psychology and comfort, not just technology.

The robotaxi market is moving faster than personal autonomous vehicle adoption, which aligns with what the Gallup data suggests. Tesla and Waymo are the two biggest players in the autonomous vehicle space, each using slightly different technologies and distribution models. Tesla is more focused on getting autonomous vehicles into Americans' garages, while Waymo is taking the fleet vehicle, ride-hailing approach. For now, the fleet approach appears to be winning the race for near-term growth and public acceptance.