Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) partners are raising an urgent alarm: space is no longer a peaceful frontier, but an active warfighting domain where America risks losing critical advantage. In a detailed analysis published this week, two a16z partners on the American Dynamism team argue that adversaries like Russia, China, and Iran are already waging wars in orbit, and the U.S. must treat space infrastructure as a national security priority or risk ceding the orbital high ground.

The stakes are concrete and immediate. Russia is actively jamming GPS satellite receivers across Eastern Europe. Iran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles through outer space. China has openly discussed destroying Starlink satellites, the commercial constellation operated by SpaceX. These aren't theoretical threats; they're happening now.

What Makes Space a Military Bottleneck?

The vulnerability lies in a simple fact: getting anything into orbit is extraordinarily difficult. It requires roughly 9.4 kilometers per second of velocity change, or "delta-v" in aerospace terms, just to reach low Earth orbit. This physical constraint means that only a handful of organizations worldwide can reliably launch rockets. In 2025, just 14 organizations successfully launched multiple orbital-class rockets: four from the United States, six from China, and four from the rest of the world combined.

This scarcity creates a critical vulnerability. There are only about 40 active rocket launch pads on the entire planet, and a limited number of factories producing new rockets. For military strategists, this represents a chokepoint. If a conflict erupted, these launch facilities would become high-value targets, which is why a16z partner Christian Keil predicted that SpaceX's Starbase facility in Texas will "one day become the most heavily-guarded" location in America.

How Should America Prepare for Space Conflict?

According to the a16z analysis, winning a space war requires a multi-layered approach focused on three core strategic priorities:

• Maximize Upmass Capacity: The ability to launch more mass into orbit faster than adversaries is foundational. This means designing larger rockets, scaling production, improving supply chains for rocket components, developing additional launch sites, and creating technology for mobile rocket launches.
• Proliferate Military Space Architectures: Rather than relying on a few large satellites, the U.S. should deploy many smaller satellites across different orbits, making it harder for adversaries to disable critical systems in a single strike.
• Deny Enemy Launch Capability: While controversial because many rockets are commercial, military logic suggests that launch infrastructure must be protected or, in wartime, potentially targeted to prevent adversaries from deploying new systems.

The authors emphasize that these preparations should ideally begin a decade before conflict breaks out, not during it. The space industry has already proven that traditional approaches can be disrupted; SpaceX's rapid innovation shows that the sector isn't bound by historical precedent.

Why Are a16z Partners Focused on Space Strategy?

Both authors bring deep expertise to this analysis. Christian Keil spent seven years as a satellite manufacturer and operator, working on both commercial and military missions while closely tracking America's adversaries in space. Alex Oliver served as a military officer for 16 years. Both now work as partners on a16z's American Dynamism team, which focuses on investments and analysis in defense, infrastructure, and national security technology.

"All our rockets are governed by Tsiolkovsky's rocket equation. The rocket equation contains three variables. Given any two of these, the third becomes cast in stone. Hope, wishing, or tantrums cannot alter this result," explained Don Pettit, an astronaut cited by Keil in the analysis.

Don Pettit, Astronaut

This perspective matters because a16z has increasingly positioned itself as a player in national security and hard technology, not just consumer software. The firm's American Dynamism initiative reflects a broader shift in venture capital toward infrastructure, defense, and geopolitical resilience. By publishing detailed strategic analysis on space warfare, a16z is signaling both its expertise and its commitment to shaping how America thinks about emerging security challenges.

The core argument is sobering: the U.S. cannot afford to treat space as a domain governed by outdated treaties and peaceful conventions. Adversaries have already abandoned that fiction. The question now is whether America will respond with the urgency and innovation that the moment demands.