Joby Aviation's recovery from a punishing 2026 comes down to a single regulatory milestone: FAA type certification for its electric aircraft. The company has lost more than half its value this year, yet five air taxis are already flying, a Toyota manufacturing partnership is closing, and the FAA certification process is advancing steadily. Whether the stock can reach $12 per share in 2027 depends almost entirely on whether regulators sign off before the company's cash runway tightens.

What Would It Take for Joby to Hit $12 Per Share?

Joby currently trades around $6.13 per share, giving it a market value of roughly $6.09 billion. Wall Street analysts see meaningful upside, with a consensus 1-year price target of $10.68, implying 74% potential gains from recent levels. At $12 per share, Joby would trade at roughly 100 times forward sales, a steep multiple that becomes defensible the moment the FAA approves the aircraft and commercial revenue begins flowing.

The bull case rests on four interconnected catalysts that could unfold over the next 12 months. Each one matters, but certification is the linchpin that unlocks everything else.

• FAA Type Certification Progress: Stage 3 of the certification process is 83% complete on Joby's end and 77% complete on the FAA's side, with Stage 4 at 20% and 10% respectively. Five conforming aircraft are already flying, and 12 more are in production.
• Commercial Launch in Dallas-Fort Worth: Joby's eIPP (electric Intercity Passenger Program) is set to begin first flights in September in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with paying passengers targeted for 2026.
• Toyota Manufacturing Ramp: Toyota's $250 million direct investment is expected to close by early 2027, backing a Dayton facility designed to double production from 2 to 4 aircraft per month in 2027.
• Blade Revenue Momentum: Joby's Blade air taxi service reached $36.2 million in Q2 revenue with seats flown up more than 50% year-over-year, demonstrating real demand for short-hop urban flights.

How to Evaluate Joby's Path to Profitability?

Investors tracking Joby's progress should focus on three key metrics that will determine whether the company can execute before cash becomes a constraint. These indicators separate the bull case from the bear case.

• Cash Runway: Joby guided for $385 million to $415 million in second-half 2026 cash use against roughly $2.3 billion in liquidity, giving the company runway to execute on certification and commercial launch without immediate dilution.
• Revenue Beat Consistency: Joby has beaten revenue estimates in each of the last three quarters, most recently posting $38.6 million against a $30.38 million consensus, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $115 million and $125 million.
• International and Defense Expansion: Beyond domestic operations, Joby has secured a six-year exclusive launch in Dubai, a Virgin Atlantic UK partnership, and is benefiting from a $9 billion fiscal 2026 U.S. Department of War budget request for autonomous and hybrid aircraft, widening the addressable market.

Why Has Joby Stock Fallen So Far This Year?

The 53.56% year-to-date decline reflects broader skepticism about the eVTOL sector's ability to scale profitably. Analyst ratings remain split, with 3 buys, 5 holds, and 3 sells, and skeptics point to cash burn as the primary concern. Yet the underlying business has quietly matured. CEO JoeBen Bevirt told investors on the Q2 earnings call that Joby is "unlocking the third dimension of mobility and turning electric vertical flight from an extraordinary technology into an everyday reality".

JoeBen Bevirt

"Unlocking the third dimension of mobility and turning electric vertical flight from an extraordinary technology into an everyday reality," said JoeBen Bevirt, CEO of Joby Aviation.

JoeBen Bevirt, CEO at Joby Aviation

The stock has been volatile throughout its history. Shares reached $15.36 as recently as November 2025, meaning a move to $12 would simply recover ground already covered during prior eVTOL enthusiasm cycles. The current price still trades 28.72% below its level five years ago, suggesting the market has priced in significant execution risk.

What's the Timeline for FAA Certification?

The FAA certification process unfolds in stages, and Joby's progress suggests a decision could come within the next 12 to 18 months. Stage 3, which covers the bulk of the aircraft's design and safety validation, is nearly complete. Stage 4, which involves operational procedures and pilot training, is earlier in the process but advancing. With five aircraft already flying and 12 more in production, Joby has demonstrated the ability to build conforming hardware at scale.

The bull case for Joby comes down to whether the FAA signs off and commercial operations scale before cash gets tight. Management has guided for sufficient liquidity to execute through 2027, but that window is not infinite. If certification advances, eIPP passenger flights begin on schedule, and Toyota's capital lands as expected, $12 in 2027 becomes credible. For a stock this volatile, such returns should not be expected every year, but the blueprint for outsized gains exists if Joby can clear the regulatory hurdle.